PrintOutlook 2012
International passenger traffic is expected to rise by 4.0 % in 2012
In December 2011, IATA issued forecasts for passenger and freight traffic in 2012, according to which passenger traffic is expected to rise by 4.0 %, while freight traffic will remain stable. This means that,even in the face of the uncertain economic outlook, the growth rate in passenger traffic will remain at its normal long-term level. By contrast, a return to former strength is not yet expected for the freight market.
Growth in the aviation market will differ markedly depending on region. In Europe, the weak economic forecasts will have a negative impact on air traffic growth. North America is a saturated market offering few opportunities for growth, while IATA expects to see an above-average recovery in theAsia-Pacific region. Japanese airlines, in particular, will be able to make good the negative effects of the earthquake and tsunami that afflicted their country. Prospects for the Middle East and LatinAmerica remain good.
IATA expects airline revenues in 2012 to be 3.7 % higher than in 2011 thanks to the increased volume of air traffic and higher ticket prices, while profits look set to reach U.S. $ 3.5 billion. Stubbornly high fuel prices are likely to remain a driver of orders for new, fuel-efficient aircraft.
MTU's targets for the financial year 2012 are as follows:
|
in € million |
Forecast 2012*) |
Actual 2011 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues |
percentage in mid single-digit range |
2,932.1 |
| EBIT adjusted |
increase of 8-10% |
328.0 |
| Net income adjusted |
increase of 10-12% |
196.6 |
* The outlook is based on an exchange rate assumption of 1.35 $/€ for the fiscal year 2012.
Revenues
The company expects group revenues in 2012 to rise by a percentage in the mid-single-digit range compared with 2011.
In the financial year 2012, MTU expects to generate revenues in its two operating segments – the commercial and military engine business (OEM) and the commercial maintenance business (MRO) – as follows:
MTU expects its revenues from the volume production of commercial engines to rise by around 10 % in U.S. dollar terms compared with 2011, with revenues from spare parts sales increasing by between 5 and 10 % in U.S. dollar terms. This assumption is based on the ramp-up in deliveries of the GEnx engine for the Boeing 787 and 747-8, growing revenues from the GP7000 program for the Airbus A380, increasing deliveries of the V2500 engine for the A320 family, and engine deliveries for business jets. Identified risks relate particularly to the possibility of delays in ramping up the Boeing 787 and 747-8 aircraft programs, and of extensions to the delivery schedule for the Airbus A380.
MTU expects to see stable revenues from its military business in 2012 compared with the previous year.
Commercial maintenance revenues are expected to increase by 5 -10 % in U.S. dollar terms in 2012. MTU also anticipates rising demand for maintenance of the V2500 and PW2000 engines.
Operating profit
MTU expects its 2012 operating profit (EBIT adjusted) to grow by 8-10 % compared with 2011, while its adjusted EBIT margin is again expected to be around 11 -12 %. This will be mainly due to the positive effects of programs launched in 2010 and 2011 to enhance efficiency. A further positive factor in 2012 will be the reduction in development expenditure.
Adjusted earnings after tax (EAT adjusted)
Adjusted earnings after tax (EAT adjusted) are expected to rise by 10 -12 % in 2012. Adjusted earnings after tax (EAT adjusted) are determined by adding the effects of financial instruments measured at fair value through profit or loss, and the effects of the measurement of assets and liabilities – with the exception of the interest component of pension provisions – to earnings before tax.
Disclaimer
In addition to information relating to past events, this report also contains forward-looking statements. Such passages can generally be identified through the use of such terms as ‘expect’, ‘estimate’, ‘intend’, ‘plan’, ‘anticipate’, ‘predict’, ‘will’, ‘believe’, ‘is likely to’, ‘might’ and similar phrases, or through the fact that they are presented in the context of a strategy. Forward-looking statements relate to future expectations, developments, trends, and business strategies, and are based on analyses or predictions of MTU’s future business performance and estimates of figures that cannot be affirmed with any certainty at the present time. These forward-looking statements merely reflect MTU’s current outlook at the time the statements were made, and MTU does not accept any responsibility for updating forward-looking statements except in cases where it is a statutory requirement. The forward-looking statements contained in this chapter involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may result in an actual future outcome based on real events, developments and performances that deviates significantly from the content of the statements presented here. These factors include changes in the general economic climate and business environment, exchange rate fluctuations, in addition to the factors enumerated in the "risk report" section of the MTU Annual Report 2011.